Good reflection and good advice. It's just the same as I think about chess and luck. I couldn't have written it better.
Good reflection and good advice. It's just the same as I think about chess and luck. I couldn't have written it better.
@Vallejo89 said in #49:
Free will does not exist in universe
What humans call luck is just the future chain of events they can not guess before it happens so they invent the word luck as an emotional consequence each event
You have just defined what luck is, therefore luck does exist.
@Vallejo89 said in #49:
> Free will does not exist in universe
> What humans call luck is just the future chain of events they can not guess before it happens so they invent the word luck as an emotional consequence each event
You have just defined what luck is, therefore luck does exist.
To put this in statistical terms, think of the time series of Elo where you play an opponent at every time step, win lose or draw, and your Elo is updated. This series will be autocorrelated (if you had some lucky wins, your Elo would be higher than it should for a little while). I think the question being asked here is what is the standard deviation of this process. Another way of viewing that is, "what is the standard error of Elo?". I considered that problem a number of years ago: https://www.gilgamath.com/elo-distribution.html . It turns out it depends on the probability of a draw (which is typically higher at higher levels of play), and the "k value" used in updating Elo. That said, a standard error of 20 Elo is not unreasonable.
To put this in statistical terms, think of the time series of Elo where you play an opponent at every time step, win lose or draw, and your Elo is updated. This series will be autocorrelated (if you had some lucky wins, your Elo would be higher than it should for a little while). I think the question being asked here is what is the standard deviation of this process. Another way of viewing that is, "what is the standard error of Elo?". I considered that problem a number of years ago: https://www.gilgamath.com/elo-distribution.html . It turns out it depends on the probability of a draw (which is typically higher at higher levels of play), and the "k value" used in updating Elo. That said, a standard error of 20 Elo is not unreasonable.
Moral of the story: never let ur neighbor have a dogge or change ur roof after you learn the Caro Kann
Moral of the story: never let ur neighbor have a dogge or change ur roof after you learn the Caro Kann
<Comment deleted by user>
i dont know is game , so is chess not luck
i dont know is game , so is chess not luck
Yes chess IS a game of luck - and the more you practice the luckier you get.
Yes chess IS a game of luck - and the more you practice the luckier you get.
Chess is not a game of luck. The main thing is to improve the level of the game, you need to practice, and sometimes all chess players have luck.
Chess is not a game of luck. The main thing is to improve the level of the game, you need to practice, and sometimes all chess players have luck.
@DinkenSanfridsson said in #48:
Seeing inaccuracies and punishing them, that is luck management.
No, that's skill management. You are using the word "luck" in a distorted way, as an umbrella term to take responability out of life.
@DinkenSanfridsson said in #48:
> Seeing inaccuracies and punishing them, that is luck management.
No, that's *skill* management. You are using the word "luck" in a distorted way, as an umbrella term to take responability out of life.
@MarkIorio said in #59:
I am not a native english speaker, so I might not hit the best formulations. I believe that its luck when the oppenent gives away chances. To see and handle the luck (what I called luck management) is of course skills. Both in chess and life I think its important to sense your luck, to see your opportunities and to make moves with awareness of those lucky happenings. If you get lucky, dont see it, and dont cash it in, then you score less.
@MarkIorio said in #59:
>
I am not a native english speaker, so I might not hit the best formulations. I believe that its luck when the oppenent gives away chances. To see and handle the luck (what I called luck management) is of course skills. Both in chess and life I think its important to sense your luck, to see your opportunities and to make moves with awareness of those lucky happenings. If you get lucky, dont see it, and dont cash it in, then you score less.
